Why Trump Potential Cuba Overthrow Paints a Grim Picture for its Black Residents

Before President Donald Trump sent troops to capture Venezuela’s president, the writing was certainly on the wall. Targeted drone strikes on Venezuelan cargo boats, hostile language between the two leaders and various threats from Trump all spelled trouble for President Nicolás Maduro, who now sits in a New York City jail cell.

But with Maduro gone, one Caribbean country should be bracing for another potential Trump takeover in the near future — especially its most vulnerable Black residents, whose concerns are constantly ignored.

Cuba and the Caribbean Sea are practically the only things separating the U.S. from Venezuela. And after successfully dethroning Maduro on Jan. 3, Trump said he’s shifting his sights to Cuba, and he doesn’t believe the Caribbean country has what it takes to put up a fight.

“I think it’s just going to fall,” the president said of Cuba on Sunday (Jan. 4). “I don’t think we need any action. Looks like it’s going down. It’s going down for the count.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio — born to Cuban immigrants — shared a similar sentiment, adding that the Cuban government is “in a lot of trouble” now.

If Cuba falls to Trump, it’s the Black residents that will certainly face the consequences. They only equal 11 percent of the population, but Black Cubans are more likely to live in extreme poverty and have lower salaries than other ethnic groups, according to the Washington Post. Decades of being subjected to police brutality and deteriorating infrastructure has also led to many Black Cubans fleeing to the U.S.– only 90 miles away.

“I’m not going to talk to you about what our future steps are going to be and our policies are going to be right now in this regard,” Rubio continued to NBC News. “But I don’t think it’s any mystery that we are not big fans of the Cuban regime, who, by the way, are the ones that were propping up Maduro.”

Rubio along with many other white Cuban-Americans, tend to fiercely support Trump. In fact, 58 percent of Cuban registered voters lean towards the Republican Party, according to a 2020 Pew Research study. Meanwhile, Trump’s second term policies have ended traditional protections and led to widespread uncertainty and the deportation of thousands of Cubans– many of whom are Black.

In truth, Maduro’s capture has sent a terrifying message to Cuba, Venezuela’s close ally and American adversary. For over 25 years, Venezuela maintained a close partnership with the island mostly because of Venezuela’s large oil supply and the countries’ political ties to socialism. The nations were so close that during the operation to seize Maduro and his wife, 32 members of the Cuban armed forces and intelligence agencies were killed, according to the Cuban government.

Until his capture, Maduro had heavily relied on Cuban bodyguards in light of Trump’s continuous threats. Now, the country of Cuba is at a crossroads. Cuba’s allegiance to socialism and economic drama has led to a tense political relationship with the U.S. over the years. With Venezuela — for now — out of the picture, Trump theoretically can explicitly target Cuba.

There are hundreds of American political prisoners sitting in Cuban prison. Insiders believe part of Trump’s plan is to pressure the country to release the prisoners — but the jury is still out on whether this strategy will work.

Trump also announced plans to take over Venezuelan oil which would more than likely result in cutting off an economic lifeline for Cuba. The country has relied on oil from Venezuela to fuel its economy for decades. And according to Cuba Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla, Maduro’s overthrow “places us in a critical existential dilemma for our survival as nation states and independent, sovereign nations.”

Maduro is set to be arraigned in federal court on Monday (Jan. 5).